Thailand Property market on course for further stagnation
Developers face a prolonged period of economic uncertainty heading into 2026, with household debt, weak purchasing power and unpredictable risks shaping business decisions, says Kessara Thanyalakpark, managing director of SET-listed Sena Development.
“Adaptability, efficiency and resilience will be critical for survival,” she said, adding 2025 was a year fraught with risks beyond normal business challenges such as weak income growth, tighter credit, and earthquakes and floods.
While revenue volatility and loan rejections are part of the business cycle, developers were forced to deal with risks they had not anticipated, underscoring the need for greater professionalism and preparedness across the industry, said Ms Kessara.
“Developers must adopt a more structured and disciplined approach to risk management as uncertainty is no longer episodic, but a permanent feature of the operating environment,” she said.
Looking ahead to 2026, Ms Kessara said the company hopes Thailand will be spared natural disasters, but does not expect the economy to perform better than the previous year, prompting Sena to sharpen its strategic focus.
The company’s theme for 2026 is product efficiency and concentration on segments where it has a competitive edge, particularly affordable housing, which accounts for about 70% of demand in Greater Bangkok.
She said there are no positive factors on the horizon for the residential market, but housing remains a basic necessity regardless of economic conditions.
“When the economy is good, people want to buy homes. When it is weak, they still want homes but are reluctant to take on debt,” said Ms Kessara.
Developers are among the first to see household debt problems, as reflected in customer profiles, with credit card debt being a major constraint on purchasing power.
Even aggressive discounts of 10% often fail to help if household debt issues remain unresolved, she said, noting that developers only see part of a buyer’s liabilities.
Some debts, such as cooperative loans or informal borrowing, are not fully visible during the mortgage assessment process, adding another layer of risk to presales and transfers.
“Household debt remains a key issue to watch in 2026 as effective government measures could improve mortgage approval rates and unlock pent-up demand,” Ms Kessara added.
Interest rates are another critical factor as meaningful cuts would improve debt service ratio calculations, not merely lower monthly instalments.
“If the economy becomes stable and sustainable, the real estate sector will recover naturally,” she said, adding debt-buying policies could indirectly support housing demand by easing household balance sheets.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/property/3168944/property-market-on-course-for-further-stagnation
